The following is a summary of “Testing and Treatment Interventions in Community Settings Key to Controlling a Recent Human Immunodeficiency Virus Outbreak Among People Who Inject Drugs in Glasgow: A Modeling Study,” published in the May 2024 issue of Infectious Diseases by Allen et al.
Researchers conducted a retrospective study to investigate the factors contributing to the outbreak of HIV exceeding 150 diagnoses among people who inject drugs (PWID) in Glasgow since 2015.
They calibrated a dynamic, deterministic model of HIV transmission among PWID in Glasgow using epidemiological data. Utilizing this model, interventions were assessed for HIV testing and treatment, presenting outcomes as relative shifts in HIV prevalence, incidence, and cases prevented.
The results showed that without improvements in testing and treatment, HIV prevalence would have reached 17.8% (95% CI, 14.1%–22.6%) by early 2020, then 5.9% (95% CI, 4.7%–7.4%) with the enhancements. If implemented in 2015, improvements would have reduced peak incidence by 26.2% (95% CrI, 8.8%–49.3%) and averted 62.7% (95% CrI, 43.6%–76.6%) of outbreak cases. The enhancements could have prevented the outbreak altogether.
Investigators concluded that by implementing widespread HIV testing and treatment programs, the Glasgow HIV outbreak affecting over 150 PWID was successfully contained by early 2020.
Source: academic.oup.com/jid/advance-article/doi/10.1093/infdis/jiae206/7676520
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